Population Explosion-Africa is Sitting On a Time Bomb

Africa: Population Explosion - Africa is Sitting On a Time Bomb

Date Posted: Friday 02-Apr-2010

By Peter Mulira ,Kampala - 

With the population of Africa predicted to double within the next 30 years....

the economic future of its people is set to be very bleak unless something is done to combat the uncontrolled growth rate. Africa's fertility rate has been on the increase in recent years out of pace with the continent's ability to feed the new mouths or to put in place the physical and social services that will ensure a reasonable quality of life for the people. In order to tackle this problem the time has come to seek new avenues through which the message will reach the villages that unless the present generation reduces its reproductive propensity tomorrow's children will face a very bleak future.

According to the Population Reference Bureau (2001) the estimated population of Africa in 2001 was 810 million people. This suggests an increase of 733 million people in the 501 years between 1500 and 2001 an average of 1.46 million people per year or 0.45% annual growth rate. However, between 2000 and 2001 alone the African population increased by 20 million or 2.4% in spite of the scourge of HIV/AIDS! 

Earlier between 1975 and 2001 the population doubled from 402 to 820 million people. Thus while African population growth rates were low in the past the rates have gone up considerably during the last 20 years.

It is on the basis of these trends that experts predict that unless checked the population will double from the present level of around 850 million to 1.7 billion people within the next 30 years. 

The continent will simply not be able to cope with the multiplicity of problems a population in billions will bring about. As has been said by one population expert, "High rates of population growth create unemployment faster than jobs, increase the mouths to be fed faster than the production of rice paddies, squatters faster than people housed in modern facilities, excrement faster than sewers can be built.

A population growing faster than the output of modern goods and services not only frustrates development goals; it undermines the credibility of promises made in the name of development and the political will to pay the price of progress."

There is a direct correlation between high population growth and low level economic development in Africa. For example with 

its population growing at twice the rate for the world 

the continent still contains 32 of the 47 countries classified by the World Bank as least developed in the world. Secondly, while the continent's population grew at the rate of 2.9% between 1960 and 1980, GNP per capita grew at a rate of 1.9% per annum between 1965 and 1983. Thirdly, it is now well established that countries with the highest fertility rates also happen to be among the poorest.

With a total fertility rate of 6.6, the highest in Africa, Chad's GNP per capita of around $230 is the lowest in the world while Algeria with a total rate of 3.8 had a GNP per capita of $1550.

Africa's population growth has not always been that rapid. Although nobody knows precisely how large the population of the continent was 1,000 years ago expert conjecture puts it at 39 million people or 15.5% of the then world population of 253 million people. The continent's population was estimated to have increased to 87 million people or 19% of the world population by 1,500 AD. This means that Africa gained 48 million people in 500 years an average of 96,000 people per year or a growth rate of 0.16% per annum. By 1850 Africa's population declined to about 8.3% of that of the world. This decline between the 17th and 19th centuries has been attributed to European contact with Africa and the subsequent exportation of their diseases to the region as well as the transatlantic slave trade which depleted the population by millions.

Although Europe also experienced a population growth during the same period, its effects were mitigated by the new science and technology as well as immigration of its people to other continents. With the new science and technology most people could expect a longer and healthier life and there was a drop in child mortality rates while the population became more mobile.

Immigration to Australia, South America, the United States, Africa and elsewhere meant that Europe escaped the rough edge of its population growth. Across the waters Japan had a different experience from that of Europe. Between 1872 and 1925 Japan's population increased from 35 million people to 60 million which created a problem for the already densely populated islands and at the same time immigration was not an option as was the case in Europe. The Japanese responded by placing emphasis on manufacturing and foreign trade in the hope that new factories and markets would create employment. They did.

The fight to combat the plague of population growth has had a chequered history. When condoms were invented in the early 20th century they were associated with defence against unwanted children and syphilis. It was not until the 60s that condoms became a public defence against population explosion. Sweden was the first country to provide international support for population control when it assisted Sri Lanka and Pakistan in 1958.

The United States which is today the biggest donor in this field went through three phases before it accepted its leading role in the fight against the new epidemic. In 1959 President Dwight Eisenhower declared that "birth control is not our business" but 10 years later President Richard Nixon announced that America would provide clear leadership in combating population growth and birth control. Five years later the American representative to the UN declared that the problem was no longer a private matter signifying America's direct involvement.

The United Nations came on board in 1966 when it reached a consensus on "population assistance" and this was followed by the establishment of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities. By 1977 out of 114 developing countries surveyed 83 had a central population planning agency. Unfortunately these efforts have not produced the desired results. It may well be that in the case of Africa the programmes have overlooked the involvement of some vital players such as religious organisations and cultural groups.

Reproduction in Africa is a cultural issue in which large families are seen as a source of free labour and wealth. Only cultural institutions have the ability to change their peoples' perceptions in this regard and as such must be put at the forefront in the fight against the scourge of population explosion.

The writer is a lawyer

Original Source: 

Original date published: 31 March 2010

Source Url: http://allafrica.com/stories/201004010036.html?viewall=1

S.A.'s HIV testing campaign of 15th of April 2010

South Africa: 'We Are Ready', Says Health Minister

Date Posted: Saturday 03-Apr-2010

By Khopotso Bodibe

Health Minister Dr Aaron Motsoaledi has assured South Africans that all systems are in place to make the most ambitious HIV testing campaign the world has ever seen a success that it can be.

"We are ready"! On the 15th (of April) when the campaign is launched all the 4,300 health facilities in the country will be in a position to test", Health Minister Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, said.

Where health facilities are hard to reach, such as in rural areas, the Minister said mobile testing services will be sent out.

In a country where human resources for health are already over-burdened, the campaign is hard-pressed to find people to make it work. The Health Minister has written an appeal to retired health professionals to volunteer their services. A week ago about 4 000 had indicated that they want to serve.

"We have issued about 9 000 letters. We just took the list from the respective organisations - medical councils, nursing councils", Motsoaledi said.

"The huge component of the implementation plan contains a human resources strategy that has several layers to it, that includes the approach that will be taken to use volunteers or retired and/or any other cadre of the health work-force. That plan is in place of what the needs are in terms of training, what kind of update they need to be able to do this, what kind of support or mentoring will be needed. That is the work that is happening right now as we speak in the nine provinces. There is a dialogue with the Nursing Council on how we're going to deal with the legal issues of people who are on the register or off the register. That is work that is already being done by the acting DG (acting Director-General) and the Minister with the relevant institutions and professional bodies", added Dr Nono Simelela, head of the South African National AIDS Council (SANAC), which is tasked with leading the campaign.

People living with HIV and AIDS have also lent their support to the campaign. Silungile Mntambo is with the National Association of People Living with HIV and AIDS (NAPWA).

"We will be providing psychological support in all sites as we believe that there's no best counsellor like a person living with HIV/AIDS when it comes to HIV and AIDS. We will be doing community mobilization through our branches and support groups at a community level. We will be forming post-test clubs, ensuring (that) people who will be tested HIV-negative will stay HIV-negative. We'll be assisting government on life-skills programmes. We have designed pamphlets where we have stated the benefits of knowing your own status", said Silungile Mntambo of the National Association of People living with HIV and AIDS (NAPWA).

Health Minister, Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, is promoting the campaign as part of a huge HIV prevention effort.

"Government is distributing 450 million condoms currently. In this campaign we wish to increase this number of distributed condoms drastically.

Each person receiving HIV counselling and testing, whether they test positive or negative, before they leave the test centre, they must receive 100 condoms each. Hence, we will need 1.5 billion condoms for the 15 million people who will test up to June next year", he said.

Out of the 15 million people to be tested about 1.5 million may test positive for HIV. Some of these will need treatment. When asked if the country's treatment programme is ready to absorb the new patients, Motsoaledi replied:

"The ARV AIDS budget increased by 33%. It is the highest single unit increment than any other in government. Our budget was R5 billion over the next three years. It is now R8 billion. And you are aware that PEPFAR has pledged to give us $120 million over two years - $60 million this year and $60 million next year - to try and help us buy ARVs. But, secondly, the ARVs we are buying in South Africa are more in some instances we are charged more than 60% than what other people are charged somewhere. So, I've already met the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Trade and Industry, the Minister of Economic Development and said, 'this is going to stop'. The tender we are going to issue will be open to the whole world".

This massive campaign seeks to test 15 million South Africans for HIV by the end of June 2011 and will cost about R1.4 billion.

Deputy chairperson of the South African National AIDS Council, Mark Heywood, described it as a 'dramatic scaling up of our country's response to the AIDS epidemic'.

Original date published: 3 April 2010

Source Url: http://allafrica.com/stories/201004030004.html?viewall=1

The end of the famous S.A. Army

By Jean Le May--- 04-Nov-2009

More than half of South Africa's 76 000 soldiers are medically unfit and the SANDF is in a "serious crisis", according to a briefing by the department of defence. And several independent reports indicate that up to 60 percent of soldiers could be HIV-positive.

The parliamentary portfolio committee on defence was given this shocking assessment at a recent two-day briefing at Saldanha military base. The army, navy and air force presented documents and reser-vists attended too. A brief by the Centre for Conflict Resolution was also discussed.

Mosioua Lekota, the defence minister, was to take "immediate remedial action to stop further deterioration". Committee chairperson Thandi Modise said Lekota had to present a plan within three months.

The committee heard that:

# Of its 76 000 troops, the SANDF could deploy only one operational brigade of 3 000.

# It was "impossible" to deploy 19 regular army companies and 23 reserve platoons because of a lack of funds.

# Training had virtually come to a halt.

# Almost all courses had stopped, leading to boredom and demoralisation.

# Army reservists had not been deployed on training exercises for nearly four years, and morale was "at rock bottom".

# Equipment was in a deplorable state, with only four out of 168 Olifant tanks and eight of 242 Rooikat armoured cars operational.

# Lack of funds had caused a shortage of fuel. In the air force, funds were allocated for only 2 400 flying hours instead of the 7 200 requested, and pilots were resigning in droves. "The air force usually runs out of aviation fuel every September," said a member of the portfolio committee.

# Reduction of the armed forces from 104 000 in 1994 to the present 76 000 had involved massive cash payouts. This had turned the defence force into "an armed welfare department", said Hendrik Schmidt, a DA portfolio committee member.

# The defence force was seriously top-heavy, with a ratio of one general for every 293 men, compared with a general for every 2 000 men in the United States army.

# More than 52 percent of the defence force budget was spent on personnel costs and only 0,5 percent on new equipment.

Moreover, Aids appears to be a major problem in the defence force. The army has estimated that the incidence of HIV is 17 to 23 percent, but commentators say there is no reliable figure because soldiers are tested only when operationally deployed.

The portfolio committee was told that seven out of every 10 deaths in the armed forces were Aids-related.

And a medical specialist at one of the country's military hospitals said six out of every 10 soldiers tested HIV-positive after being admitted to hospital.

The doctor, who declined to be named, said that he found the allegation that 60 percent of soldiers were HIV-positive was "feasible".

Philip van Schalkwyk, the Democratic Alliance (DA) spokesperson on intelligence and military veterans and a former army brigadier-general, said, "The army is not giving us the real situation."

He said from his experience, he would not be surprised if the incidence of HIV-positive soldiers was as high as 60 percent.

The department did not say why so many soldiers were medically unfit and army officials declined to elaborate. The only explanation offered to the portfolio committee was that many of the riflemen and infantrymen were between 32 and 36 which was, by army standards, regarded as too old for deployment on active service.

Roy Jankielsohn, the DA spokesperson on defence and a member of the portfolio committee, said the usual age of a foot soldier was between 18 to 22 but the army had stopped recruiting in 1994 when the liberation armies were integrated with the former defence force.

Source Url: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=ct20020713233046795S650627

The Fall of USSR- A BIG DECEPTION!

Acknowledging the Deception

by J. R. Nyquist

Meet Victor Kalashnikov: former KGB officer, scholar, analyst, and writer. He is married to historian and journalist Marina Kalashnikova, the subject of last week’s column. Before the Soviet Union collapsed Victor worked for the KGB in Vienna. After Gorbachev’s bizarre abdication in December 1991, Victor found himself drawn into the Presidential administration of Boris Yeltsin on orders of KGB General Yevgeny Primakov. There he became a research director in the Russian Public Policy Center. “So I turned my attention 180 degrees from Europe to Russia,” Victor explained. “I was quite enthusiastic to explore what was going on in Russia. The people in the Kremlin came across a lot of surprises and discoveries as to what Russia really was.”

And what is Russia?

With help from presidential advisor Sergei Stankevich, Victor managed to retire from the KGB. But the KGB wanted him back, just as they wanted Russia back. Whatever job Victor took, wherever he went, the KGB would appear. “They always arrived on the scene with offers and promises, wanting to exploit my contacts,” Victor explained. You see, the Cold War was still ongoing, and so was the work of Moscow’s spies. In 1997 the SVR (KGB) wanted Victor to bring spies into the German oil company he worked for. When he refused, the SVR promised he would “pay with his blood.” In 1999, after having coffee at the Russian Embassy in Brussels, Victor became very sick. Quite naturally, he suspected poison.

In 2000, one of Victor’s colleagues had been summoned by the secret police and told that the Kalashnikovs were on a “black list” due to their politically incorrect writings. People were being warned on all sides, including their dentist. Friends melted away. Co-workers avoided contact. Dental work could not be done. “What struck me, especially with the younger generation,” Victor noted, “is that they appear to be such conformists. No idealism, no values. They were just ready to cooperate with whomever they saw as their superiors. That’s why ultimately, nowadays, we unexpectedly found ourselves in the position of outsiders, dissidents, even enemies. That’s the way it developed.”

In 2004 Victor and his wife continued their controversial writing activities and found themselves accosted on the street by FSB (KGB) officers who warned them against entering foreign embassies and disrupted their attempts to meet with diplomats. At about this time the Kalashnikovs were fired from their newspaper jobs. From that point forward, Victor and Marina could not find work in the Russian media, academia or business. Eventually, they sought an outlet for their talents in Ukraine. But here again, the Kremlin gave them no rest, as Ukrainian officials warned that the Russian Interior Minister had included the Kalashnikovs on a list of “extremists” and that, as a consequence, their personal safety in Ukraine could not be guaranteed. 

“Conformism is absolutely overwhelming here,” Kalashnikov lamented. “You should not distinguish between the Russian authorities and the Russian people. From the unemployed in the provinces, to the top of the hierarchy, conformism is huge. Also within the media, they are all willing to cooperate. It is a reality and it will develop that way, despite today’s economic troubles. It is a typically Russian phenomenon.”

If it sounds like Soviet times, you are not mistaken. The totalitarian system has now become more sophisticated and more streamlined. The West should not deceive itself. The Cold War never ended. The KGB remains in place. According to Kalashnikov, “It is not necessary to control the entire former Soviet area. We can project our influence. Even when we allow the Americans and NATO to have a presence there, we have the upper hand. I even suspect that what happened has produced a modernized strategic model.”

Gone are the imperial burdens. Russia can use its secret agent networks to blackmail executives, politicians and intellectuals. Journalists can be bought inexpensively, as it turns out. The disinformation campaigns of the 60s, 70s and 80s have laid the groundwork for a great deception. The West thinks they are dealing with a new entity in Russia. Yet they are still dealing with the house that Stalin built.

“My feeling is that the old personnel management system has been reinstalled from Soviet times,” said Kalashnikov, explaining how the secret police can deprive uncooperative citizens of a livelihood. “In the Soviet Union your personnel file followed you whenever you changed from one job to another. Your employer sees any black marks set down by previous employers, and my former employer [the KGB] was eager to make life as difficult as possible. They wanted to press us to the degree that we would admit our defeat and failure, reconsidering our behavior.” 

In the West we were told that the Soviet system was finished. We were told that the Communist Party lost power, the KGB was reformed and democracy won the day.

Kalashnikov said: “There was not any moment, I can state with certainty, that the old system of KGB andnomenklatura admitted their failure or lost control. They just changed their form and appearance. It was a sort of generational change. Instead of generals in charge, we have lieutenant colonels. They behaved differently, but they are doing the same thing. There has never been any moment when they admitted historical defeat. There never was any serious step toward de-communization – never, never. The Yakovlev Commission was conceived to imitate de-communization procedures in Central Europe.”

So it was a sham?

“Yes, it was a fake, an imitation,” Kalashnikov insisted. “From the very beginning the idea was, we’ll get back, we’ll modernize. And that’s how it happened. Of course, many Western observers were happy about the new faces and new styles and openness. But step by step, you yourself may remember that many American institutions here in Russia have been pushed out or brought under Russian control. So, formally, we have several Western bodies here allegedly doing democracy and consulting work, but in fact they have become an instrument of Kremlin policy to imitate and exploit for their own purposes.”

Here are the words of a former KGB official, telling the truth from his home in Moscow, barred from employment for his honesty – blacklisted by his former colleagues because he did not want to participate in the greatest deception of our time. “There was no real accountability for the past,” Kalashnikov explained. “It was a big deception. People changed their appearance and behavior, but the real meaning of the system remained the same – in substance. It was quite visible to me. The West was just happy that we let go of the names of Communism and Soviet and so on. We changed our vocabulary. Instead of Politburo and Central Committee we have a president and a presidential administration. Instead of KGB, we have FSB. I insist that the interpretation of late Soviet history should be changed profoundly. The KGB maintained huge networks of domestic spies. Hundreds of thousands of people were deployed at the right time, influencing the democracy movement. That system has been extended by Putin. If you look at Russia from the outside you cannot discern who is manipulating the whole thing. Hundreds of thousands of assets are employed in politics and business. There is a hidden agenda and hidden structures. Even the Germans have not gotten rid of their hidden structures having to do with the Communist era. With all the German efforts and technology they still cannot solve the problem of hidden Communist structures. They are still being manipulated. Now take Russia, which was free to reconstruct its [totalitarian] structures under a different guise.”

And what are the strategic implications?

“They would be huge,” said Kalashnikov. “You know, one thing people should understand. There is a definite line of continuity in Moscow’s military policies from Stalin’s time. Moscow has consistently followed the same line of policy. What is misleading for many people is that the material military presence is not there anymore. We don’t need so many tanks. The question is what sort of design, what sort of strategy you have in place. All of that Moscow has in terms of potentials. We see that the Russian presence is being reinstalled in some places – Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.” The important thing is manipulation and influence instead of direct control.

In terms of modern strategy Russia’s reduced size brings advantages. Now Russia is not responsible for feeding Azerbaijan or providing cheap energy to the Baltic States or Ukraine. The KGB’s weapons of influence and manipulation, including organized crime and drug trafficking, can be used to influence and manipulate without maintaining expensive armies. And so, the Russians have learned how to streamline their dominance. Make the Americans think that Washington has the upper hand. But look around today and see what is happening to the American economy, to the U.S. dollar, and to the U.S. nuclear deterrent. There is a visible weakening in all three areas.

Victor Kalashnikov is a brave man. He has refused to falsify reality for the sake of career opportunity or even personal safety. He is telling us the way things are the largest country in the world. You can ignore him if you like, but ignore him at your own peril.

Copyright © Jeffrey R. Nyquist
Global Analysis Archive

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0724.html

S.A. : The Chronicle of disaster

(......) An interesting historical perspective now arises.
In 1992, de Klerk held a referendum on "negotiation" over the future of SA. Interesting aspects were:
- He, via NP election brochures, promised whites their "own communities" and "own schools", to name just 2 promises.
- He also promised "protection of minorities".
- Big business colluded with the NP to "persuade" whites to support the referendum.
- Big business actually, in some cases, threatened employees who didnt vote "yes" with dismissal.

I, personally, did not believe de Klerk and I had no confidence in Roelf Meyer, his lieutenant. I saw the 1992 referendum as a request for a blank cheque, and I was convinced that whites would never again have a say over their own future.

So I voted "no", not because I liked apartheid, but because I wanted de Klerk to put a proposed solution, post negotiation, on the table for voting so that whites would know what they were being asked to approve.

Well. we all know what happened:
- The dumb whites voted yes, thereby sacrificing their own future.
- All the NP promises went by the board
- A secret "memorandum of understanding" was agreed between de Klerk and the ANC, after which further negotiation was basically smoke and mirrors.
- On the last day of negotiation, Meyer gave way on every issue that had been debated for so long, and the ANC got its way. It inherited the country in every respect.

What followed was a false honeymoon under Mandela, where whites were largely left alone to get on with their business.

It seemed as though big business and the ANC had reached an accommodation whereby a new black middle class would be created, but this would not unduly upset the applecart in SA. De Klerk however, left the GNU and it effectively became defunct. Of course he and his NP boeties all ended up with huge pensions and gratuities.

In 1999, Mandela retired and Mbeki came to power, and immediately there was a sea change.

- AA and BEE quickly became the order of the day, enforced by acts of parliament
- Most whites were totally phased out of all aspects of government
- In sport, white leadership was largely ejected and replaced by non-whites (except in rugby)
- Via numerous other acts, some through parliament, Mbeki made it clear that his attitude to whites was different from Mandela's.
- The ANC began to take over every aspect of life in this country, as mentioned in the article.
http://www.africancrisis.co.za/Article.php?ID=17422&