Islamists may win parliamentary elections in Algeria
01.03.2012 14:49
After 20 years Algeria may see the
repetition of the scenario of the early 1990s, when the Islamists
achieved victory in parliamentary elections. The disparate
fundamentalists of seven different movements united in a coalition that
would challenge secular parties in the upcoming May 10 elections to the
National People's Assembly. Ironically, most Russian media did not pay
due attention to this very important point.
A key role in uniting Islamists is
played by the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) that, until recently,
was part of the ruling coalition. This is not surprising since President
Bouteflika made a bet on the country's national reconciliation by
bringing the power of the most influential political forces, including
moderate Islamists. The opponents of the secular regime in Algeria,
despite losing the first round of the struggle in the 1990s, have not
gone away. The most radical of them, like Madani, moved to Qatar and the
United Kingdom, where they are trying to influence the political
processes in the country
Others have accepted the offer of the
authorities and chose to collaborate with them, but only temporarily.
The pro-presidential alliance formed in 2004 that in addition to MSP
included the Algerian National Liberation Front (FLN) and the the
National Democratic Rally (RND), the Islamists obtained four ministerial
portfolios of the 38 available. Even more notable was their
representation in the National People's Assembly - 51 mandates out of
389.
On January 1, 2012 the ruling coalition fell apart: MSP left it. As stated by the leader of the movement Bouguerra, Soltani openly explained that "2012 will be the year of competition, not the year of alliances."
On January 1, 2012 the ruling coalition fell apart: MSP left it. As stated by the leader of the movement Bouguerra, Soltani openly explained that "2012 will be the year of competition, not the year of alliances."
It was the first pre-election move for
the Islamists. On January 6 general secretary of another Islamist party -
"An-Nahda" - Fatih Rebiai openly invited all Islamist parties to unite
and go to the elections as a united front. Credit must be given to the
Islamists for forgetting their numerous personal ambitions and
disagreements for the sake a common purpose - the struggle with the
secular regime.
Interestingly, in this case, according
to the official representative of MSP Madii Kamel, "MSP remains in the
government, but is separating from the FLN and the NDA. MSP supports the
President of Algeria, but it was not the parties that stripped the
reforms of their meaning." Under this pretext, the Islamists have
refused to surrender the obtained ministerial portfolios.
The Algerian authorities are in a
difficult situation. Their representatives like Prime Minister and Ahmed
Ouyahia can claim as much as they want that "Islamist revenge is
impossible" because people still remember the bloody crimes of the
fanatics of the 1990s.
Of course, the authorities tried to play
it safe before the appearance on the horizon of the threatening "ghost
of ISF" ("Islamic Salvation Front"), the organization that won the
elections in 1992.
Back in December of 2011 they took to
the Parliament a piece of legislation stating that movements and parties
that include individuals who participated actively in the fight on the
side of anti-government Islamists and created ISF, are not eligible for
legalization and, accordingly, participation in the elections.
While this does not mean anything, of course, it evoked the anger of one of the founding fathers of the ISF Abbas Madani, who accused the Algerian authorities of being undemocratic. The surviving fighters against the Algerian regime may well choose a different strategy: to hide behind their young followers and conduct their policy remaining "behind the scenes".
While this does not mean anything, of course, it evoked the anger of one of the founding fathers of the ISF Abbas Madani, who accused the Algerian authorities of being undemocratic. The surviving fighters against the Algerian regime may well choose a different strategy: to hide behind their young followers and conduct their policy remaining "behind the scenes".
Indeed, the very Islamist idea in
Algeria has never suffered a strategic defeat. ISF and the Armed Islamic
Group and Salafist preaching of jihad that came to replace it lost only
the first round of the fight. Now the Islamists that took guises that
in every election, even during the last 10 years of "stability," secured
three million votes, are ready for revenge. Even their opponents admit
that the Algerian Islamic alliance can secure 35-40 percent of the vote.
However, participants stated that their results will be much higher.
Indeed, over the past few years the
country's younger generation has grown up. On the one hand, they do not
remember those events, on the other hand, many Algerians do not consider
only radical Islamists guilty. After all, everyone knows that in an
atmosphere of a bloody civil war no one can be hundred percent right.
Besides, the Algerian government in the dashing 1990s did not display a
great humanism towards the opposition. Islamists, not without success,
blame them in organizing punitive raids on disloyal to the regime in
rural areas.
Now, fundamentalists, winged by the
events in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, have decided to collect the fruits
of the "Arab Spring" in Algeria. So far, the authorities, according to
the opposition, managed to get away with massive fraud. But can this be
done now, in times of crisis, and despite the fact that the elections
will be watched by too many eyes?
Sergei Balmasov
Sergei Balmasov
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